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Bad things occur and persist because of the presence of powerful beneficiaries. The author illustrates here the economic motivations behind the last 100 years of international conflict, citing the numerous powerful individual and corporate war profiteers that benefit from war.

WAR--ECONOMIC ASPECTS --- Polemology

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WAR, COST OF --- WAR--ECONOMIC ASPECTS

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Debts, Public -- Great Britain --- Debts, Public -- France --- War -- Economic aspects -- Great Britain --- War -- Economic aspects -- France

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Does growing economic interdependence among great powers increase or decrease the chance of conflict and war ? Liberals argue that the benefits of trade give states an incentive to stay peaceful. Realists contend that trade compels states to struggle for vital raw materials and markets. Moving beyond the stale liberal-realist debate, this book lays out a dynamic theory of expectations that shows under what specific conditions interstate commerce will reduce or heighten the risk of conflict between nations.Taking a broad look at cases spanning two centuries, from the Napoleonic and Crimean wars to the more recent Cold War crises, the author demonstrates that when leaders have positive expectations of the future trade environment, they want to remain at peace in order to secure the economic benefits that enhance long-term power. When, however, these expectations turn negative, leaders are likely to fear a loss of access to raw materials and markets, giving them more incentive to initiate crises to protect their commercial interests. The theory of trade expectations holds important implications for the understanding of Sino-American relations since 1985 and for the direction these relations will likely take over the next two decades.

WAR--ECONOMIC ASPECTS--HISTORY --- WAR--CAUSES --- NATURAL RESOURCES--POLITICAL ASPECTS

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War -- Economic aspects -- Great Britain --- Population --- Great Britain -- Commerce --- Hale